With midterm voters going to the polls on Tuesday, Nov. 3, NPR published a list of six things to watch on election night that could signal which party is likely to control Congress. The list was published on Nov. 2.
The first indicator is early signs of Republican turnout and of the Latino vote. Indiana and Kentucky report results in the 6 p.m. Eastern hour, and most of Florida's House results come in during the 7 p.m. hour. NPR points to Indiana's 5th District and Kentucky's 6th, both Republican-held seats that are more competitive than they were at the beginning of the cycle, and to Florida's 22nd and 27th districts. Florida's 22nd is held by a Democrat but was redrawn to favor Republicans, and Trump won the heavily Latino 27th by double digits.
Second, NPR asks whether Republicans get 46 percent of independents. Over the past decade Republicans have done well when they win at least that share and have lost when they have not. Third is Black turnout in key states, especially Wayne County, Michigan. NPR says Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed needs strong turnout in and around Detroit, and that Democrats have needed 68 percent or more in the county in the Trump era unless they overperform in the suburbs, as Sen. Elissa Slotkin did in 2024.
Fourth, the margin among voters 18 to 29. NPR notes that turnout among young voters falls from 43 percent in presidential years to 21 percent in midterms, and that Democrats have generally done well when they won the group by more than 20 points. Fifth, in Texas, NPR says the keys are the difference between the Republican vote totals for Gov. Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton, with Democrat James Talarico needing a gap of more than 400,000 votes, along with Latino support in South Texas.
Sixth is party identification in exit polls. Democrats were 31 percent of the electorate in 2024, a low, and NPR says they will likely need to be well above that to do well. NPR cited its latest poll showing 53 percent of likely voters strongly disapprove of the president's job performance.
Raw 100.5 will follow the results.
Sources: NPR