Going to bed on election night without knowing who won is normal, and waking up to find a candidate who trailed hours earlier has pulled ahead is normal too, according to a PolitiFact explainer carried by PBS NewsHour.
Slow is not suspicious
PolitiFact warns that some politicians and social media users have in past elections called late "ballot dumps" or "suitcases" of ballots signs of fraud. They are not. "States are neither fast or slow, they all count and certify the results in accordance with the laws passed by their state legislature," said election technology expert Ryan Macias. "What is fast or slow is how quickly the media can collect sufficient evidence to confidently predict the winner."
No state is required to finish its official count on election night. State laws set certification deadlines, often weeks later. Joe Lenski of SSRS said there are always a few close races that take days, and in Alaska and California as much as a week or two.
What affects timing
- *Close races.* Senate races in Michigan, Maine, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas and Texas are competitive. Narrow margins can mean waiting for more ballots or a recount; in 2018, three Florida statewide races were settled by recounts.
- *Early leads can shift.* In 2020, Donald Trump led Wisconsin by more than 100,000 votes early before Milwaukee finished counting mail ballots around 3:30 a.m., a shift analysts had expected.
- *Mail ballots.* Processing involves verifying signatures. Most states require ballots to arrive by Election Day, but California accepts ballots postmarked by then and received up to a week later, a policy the U.S. Supreme Court upheld in June. California counties must report most results by the 13th day after the election. Ohio now requires most absentee ballots to arrive by the close of polls.
- *Detroit.* Officials predict about 95% of ballots will be reported on election night, with tabulation targeted for 4 a.m. but possibly later if many absentee ballots arrive near the 8 p.m. deadline.
Advice for voters
Voters who mail ballots should not wait until the last minute, and the Postal Service recommends mailing at least one week before the deadline. Drop boxes can also speed return.
Sources: PBS NewsHour, PolitiFact