Republicans came into Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, with a narrow 218-214 majority in the U.S. House. NPR's analysis says Democrats appear poised to retake control. The open question is whether that is a narrow win or a wave. NPR suggests watching four types of races as results come in.
1. The early bellwethers. Polls close first in parts of Kentucky and Indiana, starting at 5 p.m. Central. NPR points to a Kentucky district where Democrat Zach Dembo faces Republican Ralph Alvarado, and to Indiana's 5th District. President Trump won those areas by about 15 and 17 points in 2024. If Democrats flip one or both, NPR says, it could be a long night for Republicans. Florida also counts quickly and has more than half a dozen close races, including FL-22 and the newly redrawn FL-25, where Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz faces Republican Scott Singer.
2. Where the late money went. Some House races drew more than $10 million in ads in the final week, according to AdImpact data cited by NPR. They include Michigan's 7th District, where Republican Rep. Tom Barrett faces Democrat William Lawrence, and the open 10th District. Three of Iowa's four House seats are on the most-expensive list. In New York's 17th, Republican Rep. Mike Lawler could hold on with help from a late spending edge.
3. Redrawn maps. After a Supreme Court ruling this year rolled back part of the Voting Rights Act, several Republican-led states redrew maps to cut Democratic seats. NPR says the political climate has shifted enough that seats such as AL-02, OH-09 and NC-01 are now toss-ups at worst for Democrats. In South Texas, a swing back among Latino voters could protect Democrats in TX-34 and TX-28.
4. Democrats reaching into red territory. These races show how far a Democratic wave could go. They include Arkansas' 2nd District, a Little Rock seat Trump won by 15 points, where Republican Rep. French Hill faces Democrat Chris Jones. They also include Ohio's 10th and 15th Districts and North Carolina's 3rd, which picked up more Democratic-leaning voters in the latest redraw.
Sources: NPR, AdImpact