On PBS NewsHour's Politics Monday, NPR's Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report picked the races they will watch first on Tuesday night. Walter said Republicans in red states are closing their campaigns by arguing how bad Democrats would be rather than by promising to improve the economy, and are mainly trying to turn out their base.
Walter's pick is Texas' 35th Congressional District in and around the Rio Grande Valley. Republicans drew it to gain a seat and it voted heavily for Donald Trump, but the race is now a toss-up. Where it goes, she said, will show how deep into red territory Democrats could reach.
Keith is watching North Carolina's 1st District and Florida's 25th. Both were redrawn by Republicans to push out Democratic incumbents. They have been among the most expensive House races on the air, and Democrats look to be in good shape in both. Results should come early. Both noted that Latino voters could decide the Texas and Florida races.
On Michigan, Walter said the dispute over Rep. Haley Stevens' endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers is more about personalities than ideology, and that Cook shifted the race toward Democrat Abdul El-Sayed to Lean Democratic. Keith said El-Sayed raised a large sum in 24 hours but that the move came too late to change many votes.
Keith also noted that Republicans have spent heavily, about $400 million on the air in Texas, to try to hold a Senate seat, and that President Trump spoke about the midterms in the past tense, saying midterms are often hard on the sitting president's party.
Sources: PBS NewsHour, NPR, Cook Political Report